Win rate
50.0%
44 W / 44 L
Total PnL
$-3,605
realized $-9,730 · unrealized $6,125
Portfolio
$6,125
volume $105,712
Predictions
100
3.0/day · avg $1,057
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 78% +$515
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 65¢ | 59¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25¢ | 53¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$141 | win |
Elections 33% $-91
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 98¢ | 75¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Politics 38% $-213
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 21¢ | 20¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 85¢ | 40¢ | $-309 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 27¢ | 44¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
Geopolitics 49% $-3,731
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 69¢ | 70¢ | +$22 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 42¢ | 78¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 54¢ | 22¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-335 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 72¢ | +$337 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 81¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 94¢ | +$148 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 33¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | +$164 | $677 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $881 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $258 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 83.4¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $38 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $67 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | $-17 | $483 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 50.7¢ | 88¢ | +$24 | $41 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $370 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $283 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 52.7¢ | 88¢ | +$21 | $40 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$175 | $1,965 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | No | 24.6¢ | 100¢ | +$141 | $71 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$134 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | No | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $172 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $61 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $176 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $455 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? | Yes | 29.3¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 41.5¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $88 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | $-162 | $852 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 74.9¢ | 0¢ | $-689 | $759 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | No | 71.9¢ | 84¢ | +$13 | $172 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 6.7¢ | 0¢ | $-156 | $156 | 15/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | Yes | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $302 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 72.5¢ | 0¢ | $-1,056 | $1,065 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $120 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 24.8¢ | 19¢ | +$9 | $395 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $275 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $31 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $88 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | No | 62.2¢ | 0¢ | $-261 | $1,165 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 23.6¢ | 6¢ | $-20 | $69 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 20.0¢ | 14¢ | $-49 | $237 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $279 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 60.1¢ | 94¢ | +$123 | $286 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | $55 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 66.7¢ | 90¢ | +$22 | $84 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 18.5¢ | 34¢ | $-29 | $96 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 38¢ | +$151 | $309 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 52¢ | +$191 | $289 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 8¢ | $-5 | $59 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 27.1¢ | 44¢ | +$111 | $208 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 85.0¢ | 99¢ | +$101 | $669 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | No | 81.7¢ | 94¢ | +$64 | $597 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 25.2¢ | 53¢ | +$70 | $134 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 16¢ | $-135 | $194 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 8¢ | $-6 | $20 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 49¢ | +$27 | $58 | 30/04/2026 |