Win rate
67.9%
72 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$8,500
realized $-10,208 · unrealized $18,708
Portfolio
$18,708
volume $273,268
Predictions
109
2.4/day · avg $2,507
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 65% +$9,694
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$540 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-221 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 65¢ | 76¢ | +$729 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Yes | 77¢ | 98¢ | +$28 | win |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | No | 78¢ | 93¢ | +$102 | win |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | Yes | 10¢ | 7¢ | $-2 | loss |
Esports 50% +$1,773
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs InControl (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs | F5 Esports | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner | 3DMAX | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$909 | win |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs | TheMongolz | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$394 | win |
| Valorant: JD Gaming vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner | JD Gaming | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-876 | loss |
Tech 83% +$89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 76000? | Yes | 77¢ | 98¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 79000? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 16? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Elections 100% +$17
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 61¢ | 62¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 33% $-62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
Finance 0% $-485
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 81¢ | 0¢ | $-485 | loss |
Other 69% $-770
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradex FDV above $40M one day after launch? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | win |
| Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? | Yes | 74¢ | 67¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 18¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-986 | loss |
| Uber # of trips above 3.6B in Q1? | Yes | 74¢ | 82¢ | +$8 | win |
| Uber # of trips above 4.2B in Q1? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 55¢ | 36¢ | $-984 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-132 | loss |
Politics 76% $-1,853
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-1,914 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 76¢ | 88¢ | +$28 | win |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February? | No | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-715 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 3+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 52.5¢ | 91¢ | +$518 | $2,298 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$146 | $1,072 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | $-132 | $3,300 | 12/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs InControl (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #3 Playoffs | F5 Esports | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $20 | 10/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs | 3DMAX | 63.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,399 | $3,108 | 09/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner | 3DMAX | 28.3¢ | 100¢ | +$909 | $565 | 09/04/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs | TheMongolz | 38.0¢ | 100¢ | +$394 | $241 | 09/04/2026 |
| Valorant: JD Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha | JD Gaming | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 09/04/2026 |
| Valorant: JD Gaming vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner | JD Gaming | 65.4¢ | 0¢ | $-876 | $876 | 09/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 35.1¢ | 91¢ | +$784 | $1,369 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $940 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,914 | $2,560 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $927 | 01/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 77.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,121 | $3,836 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 78.7¢ | 100¢ | +$845 | $3,115 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$760 | $1,240 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 47.7¢ | 50¢ | +$718 | $1,390 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | +$687 | $2,356 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 72.2¢ | 100¢ | +$473 | $1,226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | +$342 | $923 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $10,207 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $211 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $1,061 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $559 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 88¢ | +$28 | $352 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Yes | 77.0¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $981 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $299 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 49.0¢ | 50¢ | $-142 | $343 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-180 | $430 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 16? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $142 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $66 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 08/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 54.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,665 | $2,219 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Nutjob" in February? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $51 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" in February? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $112 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in February? | No | 86.4¢ | 0¢ | $-715 | $975 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Tax" 3+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $37 | 27/02/2026 |
| Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" in Corpus Christi on Friday? | No | 36.2¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 27/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $144 | 14/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | $200 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $422 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | No | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 08/02/2026 |
| Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | No | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $44 | 08/02/2026 |