Win rate
87.0%
47 W / 7 L
Total PnL
$592
realized $-967 · unrealized $1,559
Portfolio
$1,559
volume $27,197
Predictions
64
0.8/day · avg $425
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 100% +$545
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.20% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | No | 25¢ | 92¢ | +$136 | win |
| Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Bill Clinton charged by January 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Chris Christie charged in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| James Comey in jail in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Major U.S. bank bailout in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 100% +$102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Robinhood say "Prediction" during earnings call? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will S&P Global say "Dow Jones" during earnings call? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will BlackRock say "Performance Fee" during earnings call? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Glean IPO in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Geopolitics 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Culture 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 25% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google say "Advertising" or "Advertisement" during earnings call? | Yes | 76¢ | 73¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will S&P Global say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during earnings call? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 73% $-50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? | Yes | 89¢ | 18¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | win |
| Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump launch a coin by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump meet with MrBeast in March 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 3, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia by November 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $1,234 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump launch a coin by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $81 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Andy Jassy in March 2026? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $153 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Taliban blackmail of D.C. shooter confirmed by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $245 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in March 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $469 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in March 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $398 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with MrBeast in March 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Robinhood say "Gold" during earnings call? | Yes | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $248 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will S&P Global say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during earnings call? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will Robinhood say "Prediction" during earnings call? | Yes | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $100 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will S&P Global say "Benchmark" during earnings call? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $72 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will S&P Global say "Rating" during earnings call? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $62 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will S&P Global say "Dow Jones" during earnings call? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $100 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will Liftoff Mobile not IPO before April 2026? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $394 | 06/02/2026 |
| 30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $1,105 | 31/01/2026 |
| Bill Clinton charged by January 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $236 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 10, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $130 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $65 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 3, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | Yes | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $27 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026? | Yes | 83.9¢ | 0¢ | $-83 | $83 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will BlackRock say "Private market" during earnings call? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $68 | 16/01/2026 |
| Will BlackRock say "Performance Fee" during earnings call? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 16/01/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,052 | 07/01/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $629 | 07/01/2026 |
| Chris Christie charged in 2025? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $477 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $287 | 31/12/2025 |
| Vanta IPO in 2025? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $455 | 31/12/2025 |
| Celonis IPO in 2025? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $190 | 31/12/2025 |
| Glean IPO in 2025? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $234 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $251 | 31/12/2025 |
| James Comey in jail in 2025? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $196 | 31/12/2025 |
| Kraken IPO in 2025? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $109 | 31/12/2025 |
| Major U.S. bank bailout in 2025? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $64 | 31/12/2025 |
| Obama federally charged in 2025? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $36 | 30/12/2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Australia by November 30? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $38 | 30/11/2025 |
| North Korea missile launch by November 15? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $96 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $307 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? | No | 70.5¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $59 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $558 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $238 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Google say "Alphabet" during earnings call? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 94¢ | $-30 | $801 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Google say "YouTube" during earnings call? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 96¢ | $-10 | $574 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will Google say "Advertising" or "Advertisement" during earnings call? | Yes | 75.9¢ | 73¢ | $-2 | $63 | 29/04/2026 |
| Trump posts himself as Jesus again in April? | No | 96.8¢ | 96¢ | $-2 | $220 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | $1,504 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $224 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.30% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$273 | $1,199 | 31/12/2026 |