Win rate
40.6%
82 W / 120 L
Total PnL
$-20,141
realized $-36,627 · unrealized $16,487
Portfolio
$16,487
volume $574,232
Predictions
244
9.6/day · avg $2,353
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Sports 33% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 33¢ | 30¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 11¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 43¢ | 48¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | loss |
Tech 67% +$20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 19¢ | 14¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$23 | win |
Politics 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Economy 36% $-162
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 26¢ | +$4 | win |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 78¢ | 74¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 10¢ | 8¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 45% $-1,075
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 30¢ | $-3 | loss |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Yes | 36¢ | 44¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | Yes | 28¢ | 44¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? | No | 81¢ | 56¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | No | 66¢ | 56¢ | $-4 | loss |
Elections 33% $-1,727
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 19¢ | 19¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 3¢ | $-1,299 | loss |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? | Yes | 92¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Geopolitics 58% $-2,468
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | No | 8¢ | 5¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$7 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Yes | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
Finance 33% $-4,495
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | Yes | 45¢ | 44¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-4,491 | loss |
Other 38% $-10,117
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | No | 93¢ | 90¢ | $-58 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 76¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 62.2¢ | 0¢ | $-180 | $321 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? | Yes | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? | Yes | 34.8¢ | 0¢ | $-164 | $168 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $47 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $-422 | $469 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 48.5¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $279 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 26.3¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | $121 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 34.1¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $154 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? | Yes | 26.3¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $39 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $109 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 62.9¢ | 0¢ | $-190 | $234 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 35.3¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | $63 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $87 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $21 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? | Yes | 33.4¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $22 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $46 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $53 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? | No | 47.9¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $60 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $122 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$95 in March? | Yes | 26.4¢ | 0¢ | $-661 | $661 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March? | No | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | $90 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March? | Yes | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | $-3,247 | $1,791 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | $125 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $95-$100 in March? | Yes | 15.3¢ | 0¢ | $-317 | $411 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$80 in March? | Yes | 10.2¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | $84 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? | Yes | 57.6¢ | 100¢ | +$340 | $480 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $190 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at <$75 in March? | Yes | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | $-69 | $1,640 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 0¢ | $-184 | $113 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 12.1¢ | 0¢ | $-355 | $980 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$85 in March? | Yes | 16.5¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $110-$115 in March? | Yes | 65.3¢ | 0¢ | $-434 | $1,322 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in March? | Yes | 43.5¢ | 0¢ | $-297 | $721 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $75-$80 in March? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $211 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $172 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $20 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $105-$110 in March? | Yes | 20.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1,465 | $1,236 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,036 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $538 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 32.1¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $95 | 31/03/2026 |