0x0f18937034A2a20178c3b7641305440157145b28-1767197506192

Politics 83% +$143 $1,481 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 13, 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	69¢	98¢	+$39	win
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?	No	71¢	94¢	$-10	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	81¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Trump say "China" during dinner with Dutch royals?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump attend UFC 327?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	No	57¢	0¢	+$4	win
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$3	win

Geopolitics 69% +$59 $3,408 vol · 54 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	68¢	69¢	+$1	win
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	95¢	98¢	$-1	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	86¢	94¢	$-1	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	94¢	94¢	$-3	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	74¢	78¢	+$3	win
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	72¢	99¢	+$8	win
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$-2	loss
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?	No	90¢	97¢	+$12	win
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	73¢	92¢	+$5	win

Sports 83% +$55 $300 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Spurs vs. Clippers	Spurs	62¢	100¢	+$31	win
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	70¢	100¢	+$21	win
Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	76¢	100¢	+$16	win
Cavaliers vs. Warriors	Cavaliers	81¢	100¢	+$12	win
Suns vs. Hornets	Hornets	66¢	100¢	+$26	win
Timberwolves vs. Pistons	Timberwolves	40¢	0¢	$-50	loss

Other 53% +$4 $767 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	44¢	34¢	$-3	loss
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	92¢	92¢	$-0	loss
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?	Yes	94¢	95¢	+$0	win
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	No	95¢	96¢	+$0	win
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	95¢	94¢	$-0	loss
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	No	97¢	98¢	+$0	win
Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	65¢	73¢	+$4	win

Weather 83% $-1,213 $23,610 vol · 525 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 18?	No	99¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 18?	No	95¢	90¢	$-3	loss
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 18?	No	84¢	86¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 18?	No	97¢	98¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 17?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 17?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 17?	No	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17?	No	83¢	72¢	$-5	loss
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 17?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17?	Yes	39¢	38¢	$-1	loss