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Elections 80% +$46 $800 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	17¢	17¢	+$5	win
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	31¢	24¢	$-16	loss

Politics 62% +$38 $2,758 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	63¢	60¢	$-11	loss
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	70¢	68¢	$-11	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	71¢	57¢	+$14	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	66¢	55¢	+$2	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?	Yes	9¢	10¢	$-6	loss
Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$61	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-73	loss
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	73¢	0¢	$-100	loss

Crypto 100% +$31 $336 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	37¢	40¢	+$31	win

Geopolitics 64% $-1,701 $24,973 vol · 25 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	61¢	100¢	+$150	win
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	56¢	100¢	+$17	win
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	72¢	82¢	+$13	win
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$-8	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	35¢	36¢	$-9	loss
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	73¢	70¢	+$66	win
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	63¢	61¢	+$15	win
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	Yes	18¢	8¢	$-68	loss

Other 63% $-3,089 $28,946 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$-0	loss
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	65¢	77¢	+$56	win
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?	No	57¢	57¢	+$3	win
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	52¢	62¢	+$33	win
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?	No	14¢	0¢	+$21	win
Kash Patel out by April 30?	No	77¢	76¢	+$6	win
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	75¢	64¢	$-26	loss
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	10¢	0¢	$-3,396	loss
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	60¢	94¢	+$42	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	Yes	49¢	6¢	+$21	win