Win rate
50.9%
112 W / 108 L
Total PnL
$190,885
realized $-894,829 · unrealized $1,085,714
Portfolio
$1,085,714
volume $50,838,817
Predictions
180
2.0/day · avg $282,438
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Economy 36% +$172,043
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 23¢ | 1¢ | $-17,538 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-577 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-111,482 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-7,660 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-84,354 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-271,754 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-11,877 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-77,390 | loss |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-24,850 | loss |
Other 68% +$46,843
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canton FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Canton FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 60¢ | 18¢ | $-6,247 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | +$6,589 | win |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$882 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$413 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | No | 82¢ | 97¢ | +$342 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$180 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$16,698 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$501 | win |
Elections 60% +$30,485
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jorge Nelson Ávila Gutiérrez win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,137 | loss |
| Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
Politics 85% +$17,328
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 61¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 39¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$1,087 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$2,892 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-3,171 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2,013 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1,859 | win |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Trump sue the BBC? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | win |
Crypto 50% +$10,930
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | No | 42¢ | 94¢ | +$178 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10,574 | win |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | win |
| Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-600 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-180 | loss |
| MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$679 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET | Up | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | Down | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET | Up | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 11-17? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Mentions 22% +$4,016
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-311 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-2,131 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-1,588 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$281 | win |
Tech 50% +$1,346
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,109 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,829 | win |
| Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-513 | loss |
Culture 0% $-276
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-276 | loss |
Sports 75% $-447
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 79% $-51,966
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$650 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 66¢ | +$362 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$2,167 | win |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-1,600 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$5,774 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2,904 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-35,199 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-28,300 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$400 | $264,205 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28,300 | $158,378 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-35,199 | $772,046 | 07/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16,698 | $1,256,688 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$800 | $399,200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$700 | $99,300 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$501 | $29,836 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$500 | $18,600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$338 | $168,242 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$74 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$210,974 | $3,286,014 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $250,230 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $-83,408 | $83,108 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $-84,354 | $83,108 | 18/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6,993 | $471,483 | 31/01/2026 |
| Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$800 | $799,200 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $1,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $6,349 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's trap video get between 60 and 65 million views on week 1? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $4,676 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1,878 | $21,900 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 81.1¢ | 100¢ | $-11,160 | $25,638 | 31/01/2026 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$586,694 | $3,062,307 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $98,400 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 32.8¢ | 0¢ | $-2,824 | $34,482 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | $-11,877 | $895,208 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | $-237,490 | $245,156 | 28/01/2026 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | $-271,754 | $276,956 | 28/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | No | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$833 | $5,000 | 14/01/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3,412 | $247,413 | 07/01/2026 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,681 | $149,236 | 07/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$800 | $492,847 | 01/01/2026 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10,574 | $710,212 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9,498 | $578 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4,200 | $800 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2,281 | $1,683,646 | 31/12/2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 79.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,060 | $25,346 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2,013 | $234,421 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,896 | $1,382,981 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,859 | $261,230 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,003 | $749,734 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$388 | $10,626 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$230 | $9,927 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $16,048 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $4,600 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $67,374 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $44,694 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $2,515 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $7,225 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $94 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $10,000 | 31/12/2025 |