Win rate
67.4%
91 W / 44 L
Total PnL
$1,998
realized $-2,257 · unrealized $4,255
Portfolio
$4,255
volume $300,003
Predictions
162
3.7/day · avg $1,852
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 71% +$1,131
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 80¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 50¢ | $-205 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Geopolitics 68% +$412
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-202 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 86¢ | +$6 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | No | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 50¢ | 17¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 80¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 74¢ | +$158 | win |
Other 67% +$286
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 80¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 26¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 81¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 36¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 40¢ | 30¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 73¢ | 99¢ | +$54 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Esports 100% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) | FURIA | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Culture 100% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Politics 64% +$22
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | +$10 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | +$8 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 16¢ | $-74 | loss |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | 45¢ | 64¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 35¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Elections 50% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 66¢ | 66¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 55¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
Sports 50% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $94 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 70.7¢ | 85¢ | +$11 | $129 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 99¢ | +$54 | $170 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 70.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $57 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $20 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.3¢ | 84¢ | +$219 | $516 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$103 | $305 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $373 | 01/04/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 68.5¢ | 100¢ | +$186 | $453 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 71.5¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $299 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $5,726 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $261 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $994 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $172 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 29.4¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $42 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $96 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | $261 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 46.1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st month? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $142 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $33 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $42 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | No | 67.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $31 | 07/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $32 | 03/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 68.1¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $122 | 01/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 34.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $21 | 01/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$252 | $2,545 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $454 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 76.4¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $190 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by February 28? | No | 78.7¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $26 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | 84.6¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 62.8¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $48 | 15/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 72.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $90 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 63.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $38 | 09/02/2026 |
| Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $115 | 08/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $38 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | No | 76.6¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $258 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $90 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $109 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 68.6¢ | 0¢ | $-409 | $1,116 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31? | No | 67.7¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $66 | 09/01/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$991 | $25,123 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $583 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $32 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$166 | $8,560 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $9,007 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $5,812 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $4,552 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | $4,376 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $4,103 | 31/12/2025 |