Win rate
70.0%
98 W / 42 L
Total PnL
$-90,604
realized $-433,890 · unrealized $343,287
Portfolio
$343,287
volume $4,175,272
Predictions
144
2.8/day · avg $28,995
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 77% +$90,624
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 25¢ | 30¢ | +$3,539 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$3,150 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | +$78 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 30¢ | $-1,296 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 61¢ | 70¢ | $-1,515 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-1,986 | loss |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 75¢ | 83¢ | +$400 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 68¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | No | 47¢ | 49¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$936 | win |
Politics 50% +$5,024
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$2,360 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$432 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-349 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 93¢ | +$2,617 | win |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | No | 49¢ | 48¢ | $-5 | loss |
Crypto 100% +$2,756
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$674 | win |
Elections 67% +$99
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | win |
Economy 0% $-442
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-200 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-242 | loss |
Finance 0% $-1,586
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 56¢ | 48¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 12¢ | $-1,436 | loss |
Other 66% $-181,332
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$239 | win |
| Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 86¢ | +$10 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by January 31? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$398 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 84¢ | +$8,250 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | +$34 | win |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 67¢ | $-175 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 76¢ | +$23 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 41¢ | 36¢ | $-125 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 76¢ | 57¢ | $-380 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,314 | $5,159 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5,980 | $6,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 82¢ | +$114 | $179 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $28,619 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 79.6¢ | 19¢ | $-6,191 | $24,230 | 07/04/2026 |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $564 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$16,927 | $100,440 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,038 | $10,962 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,680 | $4,113 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 89.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,321 | $11,756 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,000 | $4,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Israel | 39.9¢ | 50¢ | +$626 | $2,474 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 73.8¢ | 100¢ | +$250 | $707 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $998 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-900 | $900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,301 | $1,301 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6,900 | $6,900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Yes | 22.1¢ | 0¢ | $-12,088 | $22,229 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | No | 64.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7,252 | $13,211 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,173 | $10,442 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? | No | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,775 | $4,104 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? | No | 88.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,374 | $10,362 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 80.0¢ | 0¢ | +$700 | $4,000 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$664 | $7,688 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? | No | 81.9¢ | 100¢ | +$334 | $1,604 | 28/02/2026 |
| Another US bank failure by February 28? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $84 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $33 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | No | 83.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,696 | $1,696 | 28/02/2026 |
| Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | No | 40.4¢ | 0¢ | $-3,819 | $5,530 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,300 | $3,700 | 13/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$188 | $535 | 03/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $422 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 76.3¢ | 100¢ | +$13,825 | $90,015 | 31/01/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$11,781 | $69,321 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | No | 59.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11,105 | $16,395 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$6,781 | $32,240 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 69.4¢ | 100¢ | +$6,754 | $83,149 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$6,314 | $42,902 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? | No | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,746 | $46,756 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? | No | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3,450 | $29,658 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,907 | $7,627 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,047 | $6,989 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$853 | $9,411 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | No | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$719 | $7,077 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$655 | $9,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$423 | $1,142 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? | No | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$346 | $4,236 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$100 | $2,400 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 18¢ | +$90 | $100 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $257 | 31/01/2026 |