Win rate
78.7%
218 W / 59 L
Total PnL
$12,417
realized $3,616 · unrealized $8,802
Portfolio
$8,802
volume $1,299,679
Predictions
400
3.1/day · avg $3,249
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/08/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 86% +$11,039
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 78¢ | +$207 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 58¢ | 96¢ | +$268 | win |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? | No | 12¢ | 88¢ | +$201 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 81¢ | 76¢ | $-1 | loss |
Other 74% +$1,908
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | Yes | 62¢ | 66¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? | Yes | 20¢ | 2¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 75¢ | 0¢ | $-136 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$824 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$5 | win |
Elections 100% +$32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
Sports 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Crypto 33% $-147
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down on January 18? | Up | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? | Up | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Ethereum Up or Down on January 3? | Up | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 12? | Down | 71¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down on September 7? | Down | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on August 31? | Up | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on August 28? | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Ethereum Up or Down on August 28? | Up | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Ethereum Up or Down on August 27? | Up | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Politics 62% $-1,197
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | Trump Announce Fed | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes | 22¢ | 7¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 42¢ | 40¢ | $-156 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 81.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,008 | $5,841 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$683 | $10,917 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | +$95 | $1,290 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | $-347 | $1,261 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | $-1,270 | $2,734 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,341 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $382 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $87 | 01/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$824 | $5,969 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$721 | $12,739 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 59.6¢ | 100¢ | +$521 | $1,062 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$374 | $7,102 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | 77.1¢ | 92¢ | +$197 | $1,639 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $1,460 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $7,323 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 2nd? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $5,992 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $199 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,254 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $504 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $2,829 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $2,264 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $5,484 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $169 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,567 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $5,582 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $603 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $159 | 31/03/2026 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 22¢ | +$5 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $436 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | $350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 90¢ | +$1,275 | $6,459 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$661 | $9,664 | 01/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | $6,708 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $4,559 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | No | 80.2¢ | 0¢ | +$128 | $1,192 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $6,144 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? | Yes | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $75 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $672 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $399 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 21, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $71 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | $166 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $6,373 | 07/02/2026 |