melganis

Geopolitics 78% +$21,262 $289,439 vol · 500 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	33¢	19¢	+$40	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	54¢	16¢	+$9	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	65¢	100¢	+$82	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	19¢	0¢	+$1,071	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$350	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	6¢	0¢	$-55	loss
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$4	win
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	85¢	91¢	+$54	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	64¢	0¢	$-64	loss
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-27	loss

Politics 86% +$5,908 $101,098 vol · 190 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	93¢	95¢	+$14	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	73¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-23	loss
Trump cabinet member out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	79¢	92¢	+$3	win
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	+$0	—
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	85¢	84¢	$-3	loss
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	83¢	84¢	+$0	win

Tech 79% +$338 $14,252 vol · 38 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$3	win
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	45¢	100¢	+$14	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	76¢	88¢	+$5	win
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	13¢	0¢	$-303	loss
Over $7M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-4	loss
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?	No	93¢	100¢	+$50	win
ELH: Kometa vs. Dynamo Pardubice	Kometa	36¢	0¢	$-29	loss
ELH: Kometa vs. Dynamo Pardubice	Dynamo Pardubice	61¢	100¢	+$39	win
GPT-5.4 released by March 31?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$6	win

Crypto 65% +$144 $16,232 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	19¢	0¢	$-177	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	29¢	0¢	$-71	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	62¢	62¢	$-9	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	78¢	78¢	+$2	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	No	75¢	99¢	+$24	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	91¢	97¢	+$13	win
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	85¢	84¢	$-1	loss
Will Hegseth's remarks not air?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Hegseth say "Objective" during press conference?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$318	win

Other 80% +$122 $227,577 vol · 520 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
P2P FDV above $5M one day after launch?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$9	win
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	87¢	100¢	+$5	win
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?	Yes	25¢	0¢	+$2	win
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$9	win
Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale?	No	94¢	100¢	+$6	win
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$21	win
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	54¢	100¢	+$46	win
Over $2M committed to the Foresee public sale?	No	98¢	100¢	+$18	win
Over $500K committed to the Foresee public sale?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-144	loss
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$9	win

Mentions 72% +$78 $2,961 vol · 40 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?	No	82¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	No	55¢	100¢	+$47	win
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$40	win

Weather 100% +$28 $751 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	No	96¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?	No	97¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 55°F or below on February 3?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in October 2025?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$8	win

Esports 50% +$18 $108 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	59¢	50¢	$-4	loss
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage	Vitality	78¢	100¢	+$22	win

Economy 80% $-4 $1,970 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	99¢	+$26	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-85	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$13	win

Finance 80% $-103 $2,560 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	89¢	98¢	+$18	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$-108	loss
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-37	loss
Will Forgent Power Solutions' market cap be less than $8.00B at market close on IPO day?	No	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will PayPal say "E-Commerce" during earnings call?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will PayPal say "Bank" during earnings call?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Ryanair say "Holiday" during earnings call?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$4	win

Sports 81% $-1,069 $16,403 vol · 80 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	5¢	6¢	+$38	win
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	90¢	99¢	+$2	win
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	77¢	78¢	+$0	win
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)	Mike Malott	71¢	70¢	$-0	loss
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jirí Procházka	50¢	0¢	$-250	loss
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar?	Verstappen	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	No	43¢	0¢	$-644	loss
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	No	96¢	100¢	+$4	win

Elections 70% $-1,777 $18,251 vol · 44 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	64¢	64¢	+$27	win
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	67¢	64¢	$-8	loss
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	88¢	86¢	$-2	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	29¢	66¢	+$12	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	84¢	90¢	+$13	win
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?	Yes	20¢	14¢	+$29	win
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?	No	97¢	98¢	+$2	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	79¢	100¢	+$62	win
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?	No	75¢	100¢	+$50	win

Culture 69% $-5,871 $52,828 vol · 186 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	89¢	99¢	+$25	win
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	98¢	99¢	+$1	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31?	Yes	97¢	98¢	+$1	win
Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-43	loss
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$-5	loss
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m?	Yes	75¢	84¢	+$8	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m?	No	98¢	97¢	$-0	loss
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?	No	90¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$24	win