Win rate
91.7%
485 W / 44 L
Total PnL
$20,577
realized $8,999 · unrealized $11,578
Portfolio
$11,578
volume $1,365,903
Predictions
548
6.6/day · avg $2,493
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 89% +$9,961
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
Politics 98% +$8,089
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in April? | Yes | 33¢ | 30¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | win |
| Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| War Powers resolution passes the Senate? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Other 90% +$1,546
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$265 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will the US strike Iraq next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 100% +$282
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will "I'm The Problem" by Morgan Wallen be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of March 28? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally." by Harry Styles be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of March 28? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Cloud 9" by Megan Moroney be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of March 21? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will The Art Of Loving by Olivia Dean be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of March 7? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Debi Tirar Mas Fotos by Bad Bunny be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of February 28? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will The Fall-Off by J. Cole be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of February 21? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Weather 91% +$234
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 16? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C or higher on February 1? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 42°F or higher on January 25? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 38-39°F on January 25? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 25? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 50°F or higher on January 23? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 23? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on January 22? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Mentions 100% +$228
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
Tech 100% +$75
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 78¢ | +$40 | win |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will "Apple Watch" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 100% +$65
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$5 | win |
Sports 100% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 41–50 times during March Madness? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bill Clinton say "Pam" or "Bondi" during his Epstein testimony? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Hillary say "Pam" or "Bondi" during her Epstein testimony? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Crypto 100% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 17-23? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | No | 37.6¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | $188 | 19/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 17? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $2,695 | 17/04/2026 |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $5,314 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $180 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 18? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 13/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $132 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $306 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $148 | 11/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$104 | $1,701 | 10/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $501 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 81+ times during March Madness? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $992 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" ≤ 40 times during March Madness? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $2,284 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 41–50 times during March Madness? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $1,952 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 11? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,955 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$153 | $2,073 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $1,175 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $173 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $708 | 04/04/2026 |
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $946 | 03/04/2026 |
| CZ mindshare all time high by March 31? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $131 | 01/04/2026 |
| CBB mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $602 | 01/04/2026 |
| Ansem mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $456 | 01/04/2026 |
| Tom Lee mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $46 | 01/04/2026 |
| Arthur_0x mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $39 | 01/04/2026 |
| Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $33 | 01/04/2026 |
| threadguy mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $109 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$365 | $8,210 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$343 | $4,749 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 76.1¢ | 100¢ | +$239 | $762 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 30, 2026? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | $5,629 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 35.7¢ | 100¢ | +$148 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | $783 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | $7,449 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $6,752 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$132 | $1,868 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $1,870 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $870 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | No | 65.9¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $414 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $900 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $507 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $8,265 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $435 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $4,358 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | $4,879 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 48.1¢ | 50¢ | +$36 | $904 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $9,920 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $1,582 | 31/03/2026 |