Win rate
73.7%
14 W / 5 L
Total PnL
$46,461
realized $-828,586 · unrealized $875,047
Portfolio
$875,047
volume $3,783,834
Predictions
16
0.6/day · avg $236,490
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 75% +$15,865
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1AM ET | Down | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$2,428 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$908 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3PM ET | Up | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-2,324 | loss |
Other 67% +$11,608
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$301 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-197 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$11,503 | win |
Geopolitics 60% +$8,105
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-8,610 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$11,935 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-14,771 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3,954 | win |
Politics 100% +$6,027
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$4,690 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1,337 | win |
Economy 100% +$4,558
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$998 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1,325 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2,234 | win |
Elections 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $-93,750 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$93,750 | win |
Recent Trades (19)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1AM ET | Down | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,428 | $5,160 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3,954 | $396,046 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14,853 | $142,890 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$908 | $149,658 | 01/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11,503 | $349,333 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,234 | $281,573 | 18/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3PM ET | Up | 82.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,324 | $2,324 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$998 | $155,750 | 29/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$1,325 | $110,787 | 29/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 32.7¢ | 0¢ | +$15,598 | $29,386 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $-14,771 | $834,677 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 76.6¢ | 90¢ | +$11,935 | $83,663 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | +$301 | $270,958 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 94¢ | $-197 | $35,729 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4,690 | $65,310 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,337 | $225,073 | 31/12/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8,610 | $8,700 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 19¢ | $-93,750 | $1,275,000 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50.0¢ | 81¢ | +$93,750 | $1,275,000 | 07/11/2028 |