Win rate
85.8%
2802 W / 464 L
Total PnL
$33,435
realized $28,250 · unrealized $5,185
Portfolio
$5,185
volume $23,695,241
Predictions
3,249
6.9/day · avg $7,293
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/02/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Elections 73% +$39,082
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$860 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$523 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$350 | win |
| Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 22 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$147 | win |
| Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will CDA win 21 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will CDA win 28 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-347 | loss |
Crypto 95% +$408
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-622 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will England beat Spain in regulation time? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will PSG win in regulation? | No | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will USA beat Mexico in Regulation Time? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? | No | 17¢ | 100¢ | +$415 | win |
| Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | win |
| Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | win |
Culture 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Mentions 50% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Wednesday? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Esports 81% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) | Legacy | 45¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3) | Fluxo | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) | NRG | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) | Top Esports | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | G2 Esports | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | win |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) | G2 Esports | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) | 100 Thieves | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) | KT Rolster | 28¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-428 | loss |
Economy 60% $-24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Texas vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 27¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Baylor vs. Mississippi State | Baylor | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Geopolitics 86% $-337
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$357 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 46¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11? | No | 51¢ | 100¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$180 | win |
| Will Ukraine vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-1,634 | loss |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Ducks vs. Senators | Ducks | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$539 | win |
| Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-02-28? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-28? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | win |
Sports 89% $-1,470
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-471 | loss |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Grizzlies vs. Bulls | Grizzlies | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | win |
| Mavericks vs. Pelicans | Mavericks | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Utah vs. Stars | Utah | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Lakers | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Magic vs. Hawks | Magic | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$67 | win |
| Suns vs. Celtics | Suns | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nets | Nets | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
Politics 67% $-2,701
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$1,704 | win |
| Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$93 | win |
| Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win less than 16% of votes in the first round? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-315 | loss |
| Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-5,476 | loss |
Other 86% $-4,019
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-2,867 | loss |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 63¢ | 66¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$318 | win |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$280 | win |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | +$88 | win |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | Yes | 55.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3,162 | $4,064 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 33.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,308 | $1,195 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 27.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,731 | $781 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | Yes | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1,079 | $7,464 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 24.1¢ | 18¢ | +$1,025 | $4,745 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 46.4¢ | 100¢ | +$929 | $819 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 79.3¢ | 99¢ | +$924 | $3,621 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 61.8¢ | 100¢ | +$920 | $2,966 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$694 | $5,428 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$536 | $2,841 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$357 | $1,104 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Slovakia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$304 | $808 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$281 | $2,230 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ireland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 78.3¢ | 100¢ | +$259 | $1,136 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 86.1¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $860 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Albania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | $1,021 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%? | No | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $660 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Wales qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 75.2¢ | 100¢ | +$102 | $310 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Romania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $420 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | $324 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | Yes | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $428 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 64.8¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $878 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 74.6¢ | 80¢ | +$19 | $160 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 44-48% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $192 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 25.0¢ | 20¢ | +$17 | $210 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will North Macedonia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $65 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $3,871 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $350 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 21.6¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $228 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win <36% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 24.4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $304 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | Yes | 70.2¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | $1,569 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | $-61 | $394 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | $-93 | $1,697 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Czechia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 72.2¢ | 0¢ | $-102 | $654 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 17.0¢ | 100¢ | $-123 | $854 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 64.3¢ | 100¢ | $-147 | $1,148 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 32.4¢ | 20¢ | $-256 | $604 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 65.2¢ | 1¢ | $-264 | $515 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 0¢ | $-395 | $888 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-471 | $859 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-496 | $518 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | No | 25.0¢ | 20¢ | $-600 | $1,155 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 0¢ | $-833 | $1,390 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 30.5¢ | 20¢ | $-1,769 | $3,373 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 26.9¢ | 21¢ | $-2,873 | $10,694 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 83.1¢ | 79¢ | $-3,237 | $19,847 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | Yes | 31.7¢ | 0¢ | $-4,449 | $4,463 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | No | 81.9¢ | 0¢ | $-4,520 | $5,697 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 52.1¢ | 0¢ | $-12,068 | $12,393 | 12/04/2026 |