Bikesarethebest

Geopolitics 56% +$103,875 $1,453,723 vol · 1051 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Khalil Mobasher Kashani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$1	win
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	22¢	0¢	$-2,455	loss
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$1,692	win
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	10¢	9¢	+$1,605	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	14¢	0¢	+$35	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Yes	10¢	9¢	+$1,030	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$676	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$432	win

Other 52% +$48,347 $956,140 vol · 1109 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	No	95¢	98¢	$-59	loss
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	35¢	32¢	+$34	win
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	22¢	2¢	+$156	win
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	94¢	95¢	$-35	loss
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	91¢	100¢	$-190	loss
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	93¢	100¢	$-115	loss
Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	92¢	100¢	$-271	loss
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	92¢	100¢	$-239	loss
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-1,297	loss
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$-686	loss

Politics 55% +$8,115 $230,237 vol · 253 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	6¢	+$0	—
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	78¢	79¢	$-1,676	loss
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	75¢	72¢	$-498	loss
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	4¢	5¢	+$1,705	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	93¢	100¢	$-1,903	loss
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	No	94¢	100¢	$-3,731	loss
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	14¢	0¢	$-287	loss
Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	16¢	0¢	$-263	loss
Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	5¢	0¢	$-87	loss

Mentions 49% +$7,555 $1,066,044 vol · 1333 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-226	loss
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	88¢	100¢	$-167	loss
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-478	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?	No	64¢	0¢	$-86	loss
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	66¢	100¢	$-179	loss
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-413	loss
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026?	No	27¢	0¢	$-88	loss
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	No	29¢	0¢	$-612	loss
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-213	loss

Crypto 57% +$5,837 $332,076 vol · 580 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	53¢	62¢	$-6	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	92¢	100¢	$-148	loss
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by March 31, 2026?	No	10¢	0¢	+$11	win
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?	Yes	60¢	100¢	$-12	loss
Will Flying Tulip launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	90¢	100¢	$-39	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	62¢	32¢	$-850	loss
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	91¢	92¢	$-408	loss
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	89¢	100¢	$-140	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	56¢	60¢	+$10	win
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	84¢	100¢	$-183	loss

Sports 41% +$3,766 $223,273 vol · 337 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	No	75¢	100¢	+$398	win
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	No	94¢	93¢	$-17	loss
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$-10	loss
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	92¢	94¢	$-1,654	loss
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	23¢	44¢	+$449	win
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	85¢	99¢	$-52	loss
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?	No	94¢	95¢	$-116	loss
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	91¢	$-695	loss
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-25	loss

Elections 49% +$2,290 $205,291 vol · 258 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	80¢	83¢	$-596	loss
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	5¢	5¢	+$589	win
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	95¢	98¢	$-22	loss
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	6¢	4¢	+$272	win
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	82¢	81¢	$-247	loss
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	70¢	96¢	$-14	loss
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$1,551	win
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	93¢	100¢	$-770	loss
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	92¢	93¢	$-15	loss
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	8¢	12¢	+$59	win

Economy 38% +$460 $7,415 vol · 29 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	No	60¢	74¢	$-79	loss
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	13¢	26¢	+$574	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	94¢	96¢	$-108	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	4¢	1¢	+$214	win
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	94¢	97¢	$-561	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	No	83¢	79¢	$-20	loss
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	33¢	3¢	$-47	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?	No	60¢	0¢	+$9	win

Tech 42% +$280 $70,168 vol · 153 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	No	66¢	73¢	+$32	win
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	11¢	22¢	+$110	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	7¢	5¢	+$139	win
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	11¢	4¢	+$88	win
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	No	89¢	94¢	$-19	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	10¢	14¢	+$36	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	84¢	95¢	$-50	loss
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	85¢	100¢	$-435	loss
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	80¢	100¢	$-563	loss

Finance 34% +$247 $10,337 vol · 32 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	94¢	97¢	$-3	loss
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	62¢	82¢	$-29	loss
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?	No	86¢	85¢	$-47	loss
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	30¢	26¢	$-206	loss
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	90¢	92¢	$-8	loss
Brex IPO before 2027?	No	92¢	95¢	$-26	loss
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	95¢	97¢	$-29	loss
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	66¢	72¢	$-47	loss
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	58¢	78¢	$-4	loss
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026?	No	93¢	100¢	$-70	loss

Esports 55% $-2 $2,175 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	No	89¢	90¢	$-12	loss
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Marsborne - Map 2 Winner	Marsborne	63¢	100¢	+$40	win
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs	Enterprise Esports	57¢	100¢	+$29	win
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner	CCG Esports	77¢	100¢	+$9	win
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs	Misa Esports	33¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B	Team Spirit	87¢	100¢	+$4	win
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner	Team Falcons	73¢	100¢	+$48	win
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Tricked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs	Heroic	38¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner	Virtus.pro	11¢	0¢	$-84	loss
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner	Nigma Galaxy	16¢	0¢	$-116	loss

Culture 54% $-349 $105,251 vol · 161 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	87¢	99¢	$-7	loss
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-648	loss
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?	No	66¢	0¢	$-251	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will "Project Hail Mary" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?	No	91¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?	No	26¢	0¢	$-73	loss
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	No	30¢	0¢	$-34	loss
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	No	16¢	0¢	$-62	loss

Weather 52% $-1,059 $6,338 vol · 81 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	7¢	4¢	+$190	win
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-90	loss
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17?	No	91¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on April 17?	No	85¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?	Yes	59¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?	No	38¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 16?	No	6¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-244	loss