Win rate
88.8%
191 W / 24 L
Total PnL
$-129
realized $-253,825 · unrealized $253,696
Portfolio
$253,696
volume $3,335,873
Predictions
222
10.2/day · avg $15,026
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 86% +$21,930
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | $-3,063 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 5, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 4, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Other 94% +$2,183
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$11 | win |
| Josh Allen x Hailee Steinfeld baby: Boy or Girl? | Girl | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 59¢ | 68¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | Yes | 82¢ | 88¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$10 | win |
| Clavicular charged again by June 30? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$1,345 | win |
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$276 | win |
Crypto 75% +$98
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$33 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Down | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Another crypto hack over $100m before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | win |
Tech 100% +$95
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
Elections 80% +$21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Clayton Fuller win the GA-14 special election? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Finance 88% $-112
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the S&P 500 Index gain at least 2% on any day in Q1? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-275 | loss |
Sports 25% $-9,817
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamaru Usman become UFC champion in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 52¢ | $-14 | loss |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-7,600 | loss |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-2,205 | loss |
| Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 94% $-15,267
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 21¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 66¢ | 86¢ | +$1,632 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$64 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 33¢ | 18¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 81¢ | 56¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump say "Gulf of America" in April? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | Kiwoom DRX | 38.9¢ | 0¢ | $-890 | $906 | 17/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2,579 | $94,574 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 15? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $2,421 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.9¢ | 100¢ | $-223 | $5,925 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 17.3¢ | 0¢ | $-2,029 | $2,421 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$216 | $199,633 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $759 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $423 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $85,626 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $100,798 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $11,100 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $56 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Stone Age" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Jirí Procházka | 50.7¢ | 0¢ | $-7,600 | $7,599 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | $-18 | $7,328 | 12/04/2026 |
| UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | Azamat Murzakanov | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,205 | $2,205 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $859 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$182 | $2,203 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,107 | $178,043 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $123,587 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $989 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,186 | $153,199 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 53.4¢ | 7¢ | +$224 | $7,509 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7? | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $3,672 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 95.4¢ | 0¢ | $-3,849 | $21,874 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $2,736 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $11,400 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $10,131 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Monday news conference? | No | 60.0¢ | 0¢ | +$6 | $120 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,995 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Equipment" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $781 | 06/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Down | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $59 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $18,020 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$262 | $10,837 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? | No | 64.7¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $39 | 01/04/2026 |
| Tom Lee mindshare all time high by March 31? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $181 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Wireless" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $175 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$510 | $27,917 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$238 | $13,363 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 43.1¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | $4,007 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | $1,819 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$150 | $1,246 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,232 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $39,864 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $4,637 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $3,928 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 28, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $33,576 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 29, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $10,492 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $2,177 | 31/03/2026 |