Win rate
42.3%
11 W / 15 L
Total PnL
$-6
realized $-899 · unrealized $893
Portfolio
$893
volume $196,253
Predictions
46
1.8/day · avg $4,266
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 26/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Politics 57% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 33% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 40¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $-2 | loss |
Economy 0% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
Other 67% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 89¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
Geopolitics 0% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 29% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 78¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-4 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | No | 96.8¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $895 | 16/05/2026 |
| Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? | Yes | 1.6¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $32 | 24/05/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 88.7¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $4,372 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88.1¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | $2,536 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $4,376 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88.1¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | $1,642 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $806 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | No | 98.6¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $892 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 98.6¢ | 99¢ | $-4 | $3,978 | 10/06/2026 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 77.9¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | $3,978 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | $894 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $891 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,878 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85.1¢ | 85¢ | +$0 | $983 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $897 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 1¢ | $-1 | $23 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 2¢ | $-1 | $24 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90.1¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | $987 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.7¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $892 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 93.2¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | $893 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 84.2¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | $983 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | $100 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 94.9¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | $651 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 97.3¢ | 98¢ | $-2 | $895 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.9¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | $1,962 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 87.7¢ | 40¢ | +$3 | $983 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 3¢ | +$1 | $22 | 09/12/2026 |
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $983 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 90.9¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | $983 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 91.4¢ | 91¢ | $-2 | $894 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 3¢ | +$-0 | $72 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 92.6¢ | 93¢ | +$3 | $812 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 73.5¢ | 73¢ | +$3 | $1,855 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.6¢ | 98¢ | +$1 | $896 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,876 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 3.6¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | $414 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $2,782 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 6.2¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | $91 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $893 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $895 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $5,287 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.0¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | $983 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.4¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $893 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $983 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83.8¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | $893 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98.2¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $4,372 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 96.8¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | $901 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97.3¢ | 97¢ | $-1 | $1,875 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2.7¢ | 3¢ | $-2 | $54 | 07/11/2028 |