Wojtek

Elections 44% +$76,151 $245,216 vol · 198 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	17¢	17¢	+$1	win
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	44¢	40¢	$-33	loss
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	44¢	38¢	$-43	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$-2	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	19¢	16¢	$-119	loss
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	47¢	46¢	$-3	loss
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	47¢	44¢	$-5	loss
Polish snap election called in 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-159	loss
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?	No	60¢	0¢	+$18	win
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	43¢	0¢	$-3,947	loss

Politics 32% +$21,820 $213,406 vol · 407 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-5	loss
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	39¢	$-116	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-185	loss
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$-15	loss
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?	Yes	12¢	7¢	$-60	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-153	loss
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$856	win
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?	Yes	39¢	100¢	+$305	win

Mentions 0% $-24 $33 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon tweet 115 or more times?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-24	loss

Weather 21% $-362 $2,976 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	No	1¢	0¢	+$18	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will a hurricane form by August 31?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-144	loss
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?	Yes	25¢	100¢	+$1,486	win
Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-83	loss
August temperature increase by between 1.15-1.19°C?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-422	loss
Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of between 1.16°C and 1.22°C?	No	5¢	0¢	$-176	loss
Will June 2024 have a temperature increase of between 1.09°C and 1.15°C?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-538	loss

Finance 7% $-2,300 $4,071 vol · 14 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$-10	loss
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	26¢	22¢	$-4	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 27?	Down	2¢	0¢	$-25	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 26?	Down	1¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Circle IPO in 2025?	Yes	51¢	100¢	+$285	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-91	loss
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-138	loss
Will WeWork declare bankruptcy before July?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-249	loss
X and Truth Social merger announced before August?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-643	loss
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-606	loss

Culture 13% $-3,773 $5,317 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	No	0¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-125	loss
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	1¢	0¢	$-229	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m and 62m?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	No	1¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?	No	2¢	0¢	$-63	loss
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?	No	62¢	100¢	+$75	win
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Fact check: Was it a rogue actor?	No	3¢	0¢	$-555	loss

Sports 29% $-5,066 $16,044 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	4¢	6¢	+$33	win
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$427	win
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-846	loss
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?	No	2¢	0¢	+$61	win
Will Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet lose the NOF1.ai competition?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-113	loss
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro win the NOF1.ai competition?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-90	loss
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?	No	3¢	0¢	$-83	loss
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-428	loss
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-67	loss
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-356	loss

Crypto 29% $-6,170 $56,575 vol · 159 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	11¢	16¢	+$9	win
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	90¢	51¢	$-60	loss
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	ETH	2¢	0¢	$-32	loss
Will Caroline Ellison launch a coin by January 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$21	win
USDC depeg by December 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will Elizabeth Holmes launch a coin by December 31?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Phantom launch a token in 2025?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-96	loss

Economy 28% $-7,877 $19,252 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	25¢	26¢	+$108	win
US recession in 2025?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-1,605	loss
Negative GDP growth in 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-217	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	2¢	0¢	$-71	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-85	loss
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-461	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	No	5¢	0¢	$-269	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	No	4¢	0¢	$-167	loss
Negative GDP growth in Q2 2025?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-536	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-222	loss

Tech 27% $-11,745 $39,837 vol · 211 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	16¢	22¢	+$32	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	6¢	14¢	+$83	win
Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?	Yes	5¢	6¢	+$13	win
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	26¢	30¢	+$29	win
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?	No	25¢	28¢	+$3	win
Meta "Mango" model released by June 30?	Yes	44¢	72¢	+$19	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-205	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	2¢	4¢	+$560	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	2¢	1¢	$-102	loss
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$-16	loss

Geopolitics 20% $-11,894 $41,392 vol · 172 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-65	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	1¢	0¢	$-87	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	30¢	16¢	$-70	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	11¢	6¢	$-26	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	68¢	93¢	+$11	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$-53	loss
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	6¢	82¢	+$546	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	0¢	0¢	+$64	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	28¢	100¢	+$276	win

Other 25% $-16,752 $209,776 vol · 773 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	5¢	31¢	+$91	win
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	34¢	69¢	+$13	win
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	Yes	12¢	10¢	$-14	loss
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$-6	loss
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$-3	loss
Will the US strike Somalia next?	No	1¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-180	loss
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?	Yes	1¢	2¢	+$9	win
ECB rate cut in 2026?	Yes	28¢	23¢	$-144	loss