Dondigidin

Geopolitics 70% +$899 $48,763 vol · 53 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	No	27¢	0¢	$-19	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	57¢	76¢	+$282	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	76¢	84¢	+$145	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	84¢	91¢	+$76	win
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	48¢	40¢	$-44	loss
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	79¢	81¢	$-16	loss
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?	No	79¢	83¢	+$15	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	89¢	94¢	+$315	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	89¢	90¢	+$130	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	86¢	96¢	+$40	win

Other 70% +$686 $19,744 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?	Yes	71¢	62¢	$-33	loss
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	60¢	57¢	$-17	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	82¢	80¢	$-8	loss
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	89¢	94¢	+$55	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	55¢	60¢	+$10	win
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	76¢	0¢	$-173	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	53¢	64¢	+$15	win
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	Yes	78¢	100¢	$-89	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	52¢	38¢	$-90	loss
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	61¢	94¢	+$99	win

Politics 73% +$354 $17,737 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	84¢	84¢	+$0	—
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	89¢	90¢	+$145	win
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	+$58	win
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	96¢	97¢	+$20	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	63¢	50¢	$-83	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	10¢	0¢	+$0	—
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$16	win

Elections 73% +$310 $51,833 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	73¢	80¢	+$20	win
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	41¢	+$28	win
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	66¢	66¢	+$11	win
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	97¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	61¢	85¢	+$38	win
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	No	34¢	15¢	+$22	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	Yes	34¢	15¢	+$225	win
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-236	loss
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$200	win
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	85¢	100¢	+$30	win

Crypto 80% +$184 $2,401 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	83¢	86¢	+$18	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	96¢	99¢	+$13	win

Esports 100% +$9 $243 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs	Vitality	81¢	100¢	+$9	win