S888

Politics 79% +$3,268 $16,186 vol · 237 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5¢	6¢	+$8	win
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$35	win
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	71¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$6	win
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	70¢	55¢	+$3	win
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2026?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	85¢	84¢	$-0	loss
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	54¢	52¢	$-10	loss

Other 73% +$1,969 $14,093 vol · 208 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?	Yes	57¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	72¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$6	win
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?	No	70¢	90¢	+$2	win
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	No	90¢	92¢	+$1	win
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Yes	90¢	67¢	$-0	loss
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	13¢	52¢	+$113	win
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?	Yes	16¢	14¢	+$22	win
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	No	60¢	100¢	+$17	win
Prince Andrew released by February 21?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$3	win

Geopolitics 73% +$1,219 $10,439 vol · 180 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	89¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	42¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$11	win
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	20¢	0¢	+$10	win
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	Yes	65¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	41¢	6¢	+$3	win
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	29¢	100¢	+$1	win
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	64¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Elections 74% +$681 $2,429 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	41¢	36¢	$-1	loss
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?	No	92¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be less than 46%?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?	No	83¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-15	loss
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	86¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?	No	64¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election in the Lisbon district?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$6	win

Tech 67% +$302 $1,964 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT ads by March 31?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$69	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	67¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-26	loss
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$12	win
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$31	win
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?	No	68¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	22¢	100¢	+$81	win
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?	Yes	34¢	100¢	+$35	win

Finance 100% +$206 $452 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	Yes	60¢	95¢	+$19	win
Will iRobot announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?	No	92¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Hillary say "Pam" or "Bondi" during her Epstein testimony?	No	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	24¢	100¢	+$74	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	No	90¢	100¢	+$49	win
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$3	win
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	23¢	100¢	+$56	win

Crypto 62% +$183 $799 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?	No	65¢	92¢	+$68	win
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$-3	loss
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	No	13¢	0¢	+$102	win
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference?	No	83¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31?	No	77¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?	No	75¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?	No	76¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31?	No	3¢	0¢	$-21	loss

Economy 77% +$132 $702 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates	Yes	42¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$68	win
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?	No	53¢	100¢	+$38	win
US recession in 2025?	Yes	59¢	0¢	+$3	win
Negative GDP growth in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?	No	78¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be greater than 3.5%?	No	33¢	0¢	+$3	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$5	win
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 2% and 1%?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-34	loss

Mentions 67% +$74 $398 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$48	win
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	82¢	100¢	$-2	loss
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?	No	58¢	0¢	$-13	loss

Sports 50% $-81 $289 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-102	loss
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in February?	Yes	16¢	0¢	+$2	win
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?	No	10¢	0¢	+$36	win
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-21	loss