Win rate
64.1%
34 W / 19 L
Total PnL
$3,509
realized $551 · unrealized $2,958
Portfolio
$2,958
volume $51,164
Predictions
67
0.7/day · avg $764
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 67% +$1,700
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$226 | win |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$478 | win |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31? | Yes | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | loss |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$210 | win |
| Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | No | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-199 | loss |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | No | 30¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$785 | win |
Geopolitics 68% +$1,368
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | No | 47¢ | 48¢ | +$1 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? | No | 59¢ | 58¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 78¢ | 91¢ | +$11 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 44¢ | 74¢ | +$504 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 64¢ | 70¢ | +$126 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 6¢ | $-223 | loss |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? | No | 58¢ | 89¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | Yes | 60¢ | 62¢ | +$1 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$319 | win |
Other 70% +$516
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 99¢ | +$111 | win |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 39¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | Yes | 33¢ | 49¢ | +$74 | win |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 78¢ | 91¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$137 | win |
| Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Sports 100% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Usyk | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Elections 20% $-102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 68.3¢ | 100¢ | +$319 | $988 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-87 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | +$310 | $1,552 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025? | No | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $285 | 31/12/2025 |
| Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 100¢ | +$226 | $218 | 30/09/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $78 | 30/09/2025 |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia by September 15? | Yes | 47.8¢ | 100¢ | +$478 | $547 | 15/09/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31? | No | 37.7¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | $176 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $81 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31? | Yes | 27.5¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | $67 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? | No | 39.6¢ | 0¢ | $-152 | $152 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? | No | 39.7¢ | 0¢ | $-447 | $447 | 31/08/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Yablunivka before August? | Yes | 52.9¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $230 | 01/08/2025 |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August? | Yes | 23.3¢ | 0¢ | +$210 | $369 | 31/07/2025 |
| Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 | Usyk | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $50 | 20/07/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | No | 54.4¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $623 | 30/06/2025 |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Yes | 58.6¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $60 | 30/06/2025 |
| Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? | No | 34.3¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | $42 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July? | Yes | 36.8¢ | 0¢ | $-199 | $199 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 100¢ | +$326 | $263 | 30/04/2025 |
| Will the EU impose tariffs on the U.S. before May? | No | 30.2¢ | 0¢ | +$137 | $80 | 30/04/2025 |
| Will Russia capture Siversk before May? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $48 | 30/04/2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | No | 30.4¢ | 100¢ | +$253 | $355 | 29/04/2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days? | Yes | 61.5¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $90 | 29/04/2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | No | 60.9¢ | 100¢ | +$785 | $2,354 | 20/04/2025 |
| Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025? | Yes | 29.7¢ | 100¢ | +$92 | $53 | 31/03/2025 |
| Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? | Yes | 40.2¢ | 0¢ | +$56 | $76 | 31/03/2025 |
| Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before April 2025? | No | 63.6¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $35 | 31/03/2025 |
| Will Trump sanction Russia before March? | Yes | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | +$79 | $60 | 28/02/2025 |
| Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 28/02/2025 |
| BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $70 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election? | No | 39.7¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? | Yes | 44.5¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | $46 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? | No | 53.7¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 23/02/2025 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 45.2¢ | 75¢ | +$48 | $72 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | Yes | 78.1¢ | 91¢ | +$18 | $108 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 62¢ | +$1 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? | No | 58.2¢ | 89¢ | +$12 | $22 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $250 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 29.8¢ | 6¢ | $-223 | $285 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | Yes | 56.1¢ | 85¢ | +$208 | $405 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? | Yes | 32.8¢ | 49¢ | +$74 | $149 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $109 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? | No | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $109 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 30/06/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 44.3¢ | 74¢ | +$504 | $763 | 31/12/2026 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Yes | 39.7¢ | 39¢ | $-2 | $100 | 31/12/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 64.3¢ | 70¢ | +$126 | $601 | 31/12/2026 |
| Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 66.3¢ | 99¢ | +$111 | $223 | 31/12/2026 |