0x0615...87ac

Politics 67% +$78 $1,473 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	57¢	24¢	$-22	loss
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	98¢	99¢	+$2	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	49¢	57¢	+$46	win
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	94¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	80¢	100¢	+$12	win

Other 60% +$21 $575 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	67¢	59¢	$-2	loss
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?	No	91¢	98¢	+$3	win
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	82¢	94¢	+$12	win
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	90¢	65¢	$-2	loss

Crypto 50% +$9 $351 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	63¢	60¢	$-4	loss
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	94¢	98¢	+$13	win

Geopolitics 66% $-8 $3,393 vol · 32 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	46¢	76¢	$-9	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	36¢	0¢	$-15	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	47¢	100¢	+$155	win
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	82¢	74¢	$-3	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	54¢	100¢	$-86	loss
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	33¢	0¢	$-245	loss
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	70¢	97¢	+$18	win
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	69¢	95¢	+$6	win
Military action against Iran ends by April 25, 2026?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	93¢	94¢	+$1	win