Win rate
65.2%
60 W / 32 L
Total PnL
$-17,528
realized $-42,283 · unrealized $24,755
Portfolio
$24,755
volume $1,125,218
Predictions
89
2.9/day · avg $12,643
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 57% +$3,054
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 46¢ | 82¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$7 | win |
| Crude Oil all time high by April 30? | No | 87¢ | 98¢ | +$995 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 13¢ | 56¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 81¢ | 44¢ | $-3,041 | loss |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | No | 80¢ | 96¢ | +$2,873 | win |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 90¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? | No | 80¢ | 99¢ | +$242 | win |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | loss |
Elections 50% +$91
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 91¢ | 84¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | win |
Crypto 0% $-20
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 95¢ | $-20 | loss |
Politics 41% $-4,045
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 36¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 18¢ | 41¢ | $-730 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 64¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Yes | 25¢ | 40¢ | $-1,252 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$683 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | $-100 | loss |
Geopolitics 78% $-16,705
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-24,780 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | loss |
| Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 66¢ | +$105 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$45 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 65¢ | +$12 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 44¢ | $-4,188 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 56¢ | $-3,963 | loss |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$51 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 16¢ | $-322 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11,539 | $31,068 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$899 | $9,131 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$798 | $5,853 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$683 | $6,300 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | $3,970 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | $-21 | $433 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 2.2¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | $279 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | $-340 | $1,000 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 82.0¢ | 9¢ | $-2,052 | $5,904 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | $2,426 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $35 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $46 | 13/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 93.2¢ | 100¢ | +$980 | $13,653 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $900 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$528 | $2,662 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 68.5¢ | 0¢ | +$482 | $2,272 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 93.1¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $2,859 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 64.3¢ | 9¢ | $-1,955 | $6,515 | 07/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$694 | $3,960 | 05/04/2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | No | 93.6¢ | 100¢ | +$911 | $13,413 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$836 | $9,082 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$390 | $4,814 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$164 | $2,361 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $3,880 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $2,913 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $2,506 | 31/03/2026 |
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by March 31, 2026? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $1,639 | 31/03/2026 |
| NATO Article 5 by March 31? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $1,382 | 31/03/2026 |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $2,079 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $962 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-100 | $1,760 | 31/03/2026 |
| 1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026? | No | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $1,648 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 18¢ | $-40 | $123 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $53 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,534 | $13,834 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $3,179 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $1,910 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $1,890 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $825 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will France strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $970 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $806 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 92¢ | $-1,104 | $8,463 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 97¢ | +$146 | $1,020 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 89.0¢ | 92¢ | +$53 | $2,279 | 21/04/2026 |