thursdays

Other 58% +$13,053 $195,010 vol · 625 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	38¢	14¢	$-44	loss
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	60¢	55¢	$-11	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	9¢	18¢	+$48	win
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	26¢	34¢	+$28	win
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$-10	loss
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	No	88¢	88¢	+$0	win
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?	No	86¢	85¢	$-1	loss
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	92¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?	No	74¢	77¢	$-35	loss
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	48¢	68¢	+$119	win

Politics 49% +$3,719 $47,305 vol · 298 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will 49 or fewer senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	No	73¢	78¢	$-20	loss
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	58¢	46¢	$-5	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	72¢	100¢	$-22	loss
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	27¢	0¢	$-70	loss
Will 60 or more of senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?	Yes	21¢	18¢	$-1	loss
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	64¢	54¢	$-10	loss
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?	No	86¢	85¢	$-213	loss
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?	Yes	76¢	60¢	$-8	loss
Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026?	No	83¢	100¢	+$109	win

Tech 48% +$1,086 $20,241 vol · 80 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	19¢	9¢	$-27	loss
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	80¢	79¢	$-0	loss
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?	Yes	46¢	100¢	+$1	win
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?	No	28¢	0¢	$-360	loss
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q1 2026	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$55	win
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	Yes	17¢	0¢	+$141	win
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	8¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-115	loss

Finance 100% +$562 $557 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$73	win
Will Snowflake say "Competition" during earnings call?	No	44¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Dell say "Windows 10" during earnings call?	No	10¢	100¢	+$226	win

Geopolitics 69% +$386 $3,081 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$7	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	85¢	0¢	$-74	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	32¢	14¢	$-15	loss
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?	No	89¢	97¢	+$2	win
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-8	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	95¢	97¢	+$2	win
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?	No	86¢	96¢	+$4	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Yes	24¢	100¢	+$151	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win

Crypto 52% +$237 $3,292 vol · 33 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	47¢	28¢	$-32	loss
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	39¢	29¢	$-12	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?	No	50¢	100¢	+$53	win
Will Unit launch a token in 2025?	No	72¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Ostium launch a token in 2025?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will Felix Protocol launch a token in 2025?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?	Yes	43¢	0¢	$-86	loss
Will Infinex launch a token in 2025?	No	65¢	100¢	+$101	win
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?	No	45¢	100¢	+$35	win

Esports 75% $-14 $288 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will PVISION win the 2025 Dota 2 Esports World Cup Tournament?	No	82¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Paper Rex win the 2025 Valorant Esports World Cup Tournament?	No	69¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2024?	No	87¢	100¢	$-53	loss

Mentions 25% $-26 $769 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?	No	84¢	100¢	$-23	loss
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times October 11-18?	No	75¢	100¢	$-13	loss

Weather 0% $-287 $344 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	45¢	0¢	$-287	loss
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on January 23?	Yes	35¢	0¢	+$-0	loss

Economy 39% $-1,411 $32,629 vol · 132 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
BLS delays another CPI release before 2027?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$281	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	5¢	1¢	$-44	loss
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	48¢	78¢	+$21	win
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	No	90¢	87¢	$-3	loss
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Yes	20¢	23¢	+$5	win
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	61¢	7¢	$-445	loss
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	93¢	100¢	$-57	loss
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$43	win
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be greater than or equal to 3.0%?	No	92¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.5%?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-74	loss

Culture 57% $-2,423 $20,345 vol · 149 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	No	72¢	79¢	+$5	win
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in April?	No	92¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-18	loss
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$72	win
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 8 awards at the Oscars?	No	93¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?	No	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will "Sinners" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-57	loss

Elections 48% $-7,285 $26,956 vol · 130 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be between 100m and 105m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?	No	90¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	47¢	50¢	+$3	win
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	51¢	52¢	+$6	win
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	82¢	88¢	+$10	win
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?	No	32¢	19¢	$-37	loss
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	75¢	0¢	$-628	loss
Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?	No	93¢	96¢	+$1	win
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	22¢	18¢	$-41	loss
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	No	40¢	50¢	+$10	win
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	81¢	88¢	+$21	win

Sports 45% $-9,938 $122,377 vol · 213 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	No	74¢	72¢	$-1	loss
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?	No	80¢	86¢	+$2	win
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?	Yes	24¢	39¢	+$35	win
Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?	No	90¢	97¢	+$2	win
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be 3.7% or higher?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$135	win
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in March?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?	No	98¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?	Yes	13¢	0¢	+$17	win