Win rate
48.9%
153 W / 160 L
Total PnL
$26,662
realized $17,638 · unrealized $9,024
Portfolio
$9,024
volume $1,770,822
Predictions
355
11.8/day · avg $4,988
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 16/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Tech 58% +$7,804
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? | No | 6¢ | 3¢ | $-101 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 22¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 22¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 19¢ | 21¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 12¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-499 | loss |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 6¢ | 2¢ | $-202 | loss |
| Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 30¢ | $-6 | loss |
Other 53% +$7,580
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | Yes | 46¢ | 60¢ | +$106 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 6¢ | 5¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | No | 8¢ | 43¢ | +$241 | win |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | Yes | 11¢ | 31¢ | +$84 | win |
| Claude 4.7 released by June 30? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 20¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Yes | 18¢ | 11¢ | $-97 | loss |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 12¢ | +$282 | win |
Geopolitics 40% +$5,408
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 66¢ | 70¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 36¢ | 28¢ | $-117 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$76 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 74¢ | +$28 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 30¢ | 88¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 80¢ | 94¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $-70 | loss |
Politics 51% +$4,045
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 33¢ | 14¢ | $-112 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 74¢ | 75¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" in April? | Yes | 13¢ | 100¢ | +$379 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | $-31 | loss |
| Will Trump say "N Word" in April? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $-69 | loss |
| Will Trump post "Free Tina Peters" this week on Truth Social? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 1¢ | $-71 | loss |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 6¢ | 100¢ | +$303 | win |
Mentions 50% +$270
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$149 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 24? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-377 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 19? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
Finance 50% +$149
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 2¢ | $-119 | loss |
| Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$264 | win |
Crypto 67% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 2¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 5¢ | 2¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | Yes | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$44 | win |
Sports 50% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will NCAA March Madness Live be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
Economy 0% $-179
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | loss |
Elections 0% $-473
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-359 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | Yes | 62.5¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $240 | 17/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 4¢ | +$28 | $107 | 17/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 4.1¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $41 | 17/04/2026 |
| Claude 4.7 released by April 17? | No | 13.8¢ | 0¢ | $-860 | $1,004 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 5.8¢ | 6¢ | +$962 | $356 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 98¢ | $-133 | $398 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? | No | 46.4¢ | 76¢ | +$52 | $163 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 10.7¢ | 5¢ | +$638 | $434 | 17/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 18.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1,512 | $3,302 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,300 | $23,850 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 15? | Yes | 79.6¢ | 100¢ | +$432 | $1,696 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 92¢ | +$373 | $6,880 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 100¢ | +$303 | $180 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 18.9¢ | 0¢ | +$257 | $1,252 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 55.6¢ | 100¢ | +$235 | $2,475 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | No | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $619 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 38.1¢ | 0¢ | +$32 | $145 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $42 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 43.9¢ | 12¢ | +$23 | $616 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 6.5¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $111 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | $266 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 0¢ | $-64 | $218 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 2¢ | $-82 | $213 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 41.8¢ | 100¢ | $-131 | $200 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | $-299 | $330 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-588 | $382 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 7.2¢ | 0¢ | $-394 | $418 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-506 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | $-131 | $287 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 24.2¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $2,610 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 14? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $60 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 13? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | $675 | 13/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 0¢ | +$178 | $1,018 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Panican" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $-63 | $85 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 12? | Yes | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | $-142 | $886 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | $144 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 11? | Yes | 72.1¢ | 100¢ | +$162 | $419 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | No | 61.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,774 | $4,273 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 45.3¢ | 100¢ | +$583 | $1,483 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | $651 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 11.7¢ | 0¢ | +$250 | $663 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Yes | 46.5¢ | 100¢ | +$170 | $148 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | No | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $640 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $21 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | No | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 10? | Yes | 40.1¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $119 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 10? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-114 | $129 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,897 | $15,600 | 07/04/2026 |