Win rate
51.8%
1095 W / 1020 L
Total PnL
$-795
realized $-2,588 · unrealized $1,793
Portfolio
$1,793
volume $1,739,733
Predictions
3,563
41.4/day · avg $488
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 63% +$2,171
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $-129 | loss |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| US forces in Iran in 2025? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Elections 100% +$225
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
Tech 60% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| OpenAI browser in July? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| OpenAI announces development of glasses/headset before August? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before July? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Culture 100% +$23
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Mentions 100% +$16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Crypto 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Economy 50% $-8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | win |
Other 46% $-132
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | No | 75¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 86¢ | 52¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? | No | 52¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$85 | win |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| TikTok sale announced in 2025? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Politics 43% $-1,254
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | 68¢ | 92¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first? | Zelenskyy | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-176 | loss |
| Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Crooked Joe" in November? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-229 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late Powell" in October? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-467 | loss |
| Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Weather 51% $-2,844
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 19? | No | 67¢ | 67¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 19? | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 19? | No | 75¢ | 80¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18? | Yes | 24¢ | 30¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 18? | Yes | 21¢ | 16¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 18? | No | 64¢ | 64¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 18? | No | 65¢ | 63¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 18? | Yes | 39¢ | 50¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 18? | No | 71¢ | 69¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 18? | No | 67¢ | 69¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17? | No | 37.7¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $29 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? | Yes | 32.6¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | $25 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or higher on April 17? | Yes | 2.3¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $28 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 2.8¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 17? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $35 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 17? | Yes | 27.4¢ | 14¢ | $-67 | $134 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 17? | Yes | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-128 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 17? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $81 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 17? | Yes | 31.4¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | $98 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 17? | Yes | 35.4¢ | 50¢ | +$34 | $87 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17? | No | 54.0¢ | 3¢ | $-96 | $154 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 17? | No | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 17? | No | 48.5¢ | 1¢ | $-85 | $89 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17? | No | 54.0¢ | 1¢ | $-78 | $79 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 17? | No | 62.9¢ | 99¢ | +$50 | $86 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17? | No | 67.9¢ | 96¢ | +$45 | $128 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 17? | No | 58.1¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | $79 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 17? | No | 71.8¢ | 68¢ | $-4 | $87 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 17? | No | 68.9¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | $72 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 17? | No | 68.0¢ | 2¢ | $-19 | $20 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 16? | No | 64.2¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $112 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16? | No | 71.1¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $82 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 16? | No | 75.7¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $34 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? | Yes | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-125 | $127 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 16? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 16? | Yes | 29.5¢ | 0¢ | $-161 | $162 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 16? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | $-133 | $136 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 16? | No | 45.2¢ | 0¢ | $-144 | $145 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 16? | Yes | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | $74 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16? | No | 55.6¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $153 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 16? | No | 52.6¢ | 0¢ | $-139 | $142 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 16? | No | 64.4¢ | 0¢ | $-138 | $139 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on April 16? | No | 69.6¢ | 0¢ | $-101 | $164 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 16? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 15? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 15? | Yes | 10.7¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $39 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 15? | Yes | 45.6¢ | 0¢ | $-111 | $147 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 15? | No | 61.4¢ | 0¢ | $-151 | $152 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on April 15? | No | 70.7¢ | 0¢ | $-148 | $149 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 15? | No | 59.4¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $107 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 15? | Yes | 44.7¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15? | Yes | 33.1¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 15? | No | 63.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $141 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on April 15? | Yes | 30.4¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $21 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 15? | No | 69.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 15? | No | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 15? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 14? | No | 36.3¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $64 | 14/04/2026 |