Win rate
59.8%
797 W / 536 L
Total PnL
$-4,810
realized $-12,674 · unrealized $7,864
Portfolio
$7,864
volume $280,717
Predictions
1,993
6.8/day · avg $141
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 78% +$707
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | No | 26¢ | 24¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Senators vs. Red Wings | Senators | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Islanders vs. Senators | Senators | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Red Wings vs. Senators | Senators | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-46 | loss |
| Senators vs. Penguins | Penguins | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Golden Knights vs. Senators | Senators | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Tech 100% +$341
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ermal Meta win Sanremo 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$276 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
Culture 67% +$216
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Forevergreen win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-351 | loss |
| Will Jane Austen's Period Drama win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
| Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-1,446 | loss |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
Politics 53% +$121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Miami Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris | Billy Harris | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-93 | loss |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$157 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? | No | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Trump approval >45% on August 1? | No | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
Economy 50% +$81
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 35¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Baylor vs. Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-140 | loss |
Finance 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 38% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | No | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-27? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Qatar Total Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova | Sierra | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Big Game: Coin Toss | Heads | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw? | No | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Netherlands finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$156 | win |
Esports 67% $-33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Altay Esports (BO3) | HOTU | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Imperial vs TheMongolz (BO1) | TheMongolz | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | loss |
| Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports | Paper Rex | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
Elections 48% $-1,443
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | No | 26¢ | 25¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Rosen Zhelyazkov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | 86¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | Yes | 67¢ | 50¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-454 | loss |
| Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Sports 57% $-2,182
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? | No | 83¢ | 98¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Naz Reid win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? | No | 58¢ | 96¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | No | 76¢ | 6¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the Western Conference? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 72¢ | 71¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | +$14 | win |
Other 62% $-3,527
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? | No | 43¢ | 6¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic | Hamad Medjedovic | 39¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton | Ben Shelton | 36¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Will Chris Shula be the next Giants Head Coach? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan | Alex Molcan | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
| Barcelona Open: Ignacio Buse vs Corentin Moutet | Ignacio Buse | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-04-18? | No | 44¢ | 44¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-18? | No | 61.0¢ | 62¢ | +$1 | $26 | 18/04/2026 |
| Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Anastasia Potapova vs Lilli Tagger | Anastasia Potapova | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $57 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the Boston Bruins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 62.4¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | $227 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the New York Islanders make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 55.8¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $146 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Detroit Red Wings make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $94 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $402 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs? | Yes | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $75 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Nashville Predators make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $24 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 51.1¢ | 0¢ | $-74 | $74 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $521 | 13/04/2026 |
| Canucks vs. Ducks | Ducks | 73.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 45.2¢ | 100¢ | +$579 | $477 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 41.8¢ | 100¢ | +$539 | $387 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$278 | $1,048 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 73.7¢ | 100¢ | +$202 | $566 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$183 | $1,205 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $487 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 60.7¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $113 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $387 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 71.3¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $147 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $66 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $91 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Houston Astros vs. Athletics | Houston Astros | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 32.3¢ | 0¢ | $-65 | $65 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 55.6¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 68.2¢ | 0¢ | $-147 | $147 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-182 | $182 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-209 | $209 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs? | No | 71.2¢ | 0¢ | $-224 | $224 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? | No | 62.9¢ | 0¢ | $-367 | $367 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs? | Yes | 59.9¢ | 0¢ | $-626 | $626 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 56.2¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $67 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $32 | 11/04/2026 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels | Seattle Mariners | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $30 | 11/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Quentin Halys | Quentin Halys | 52.6¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 11/04/2026 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $24 | 10/04/2026 |
| Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $33 | 10/04/2026 |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $44 | 07/04/2026 |
| Flyers vs. Devils | Devils | 52.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.6¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $27 | 07/04/2026 |
| Predators vs. Kings | Predators | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 07/04/2026 |
| Blackhawks vs. Sharks | Blackhawks | 40.0¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | $95 | 07/04/2026 |
| Clippers vs. Kings | Clippers | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $125 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Italy win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15.1¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $21 | 06/04/2026 |
| Blues vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 24.3¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $64 | 06/04/2026 |
| Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 59.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $24 | 05/04/2026 |
| Bruins vs. Lightning | Lightning | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $33 | 04/04/2026 |