Win rate
68.8%
22 W / 10 L
Total PnL
$207
realized $-333 · unrealized $540
Portfolio
$540
volume $12,697
Predictions
96
2.6/day · avg $132
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 57% +$114
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 91¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 93¢ | 57¢ | $-57 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Crypto 100% +$59
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
Geopolitics 100% +$51
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Tech 60% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 53¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $-3 | loss |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 70¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 12¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
Recent Trades (32)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 73.5¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $215 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | $68 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | Yes | 96.2¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $194 | 15/04/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $148 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $141 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? | Yes | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $226 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $107 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 81.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $104 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $44 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | No | 82.0¢ | 84¢ | +$83 | $418 | 31/03/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | $121 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $111 | 30/06/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $60 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | $30 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $101 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 74.8¢ | 12¢ | +$1 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $24 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 76.7¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | $32 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30? | No | 83.4¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | $25 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? | No | 74.6¢ | 70¢ | $-1 | $30 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 57¢ | $-57 | $169 | 30/06/2026 |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 28¢ | $-1 | $30 | 31/12/2026 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | No | 76.4¢ | 91¢ | +$11 | $100 | 31/12/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $51 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 71.5¢ | 70¢ | $-3 | $150 | 31/12/2026 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 53.0¢ | 48¢ | $-3 | $53 | 31/12/2027 |