varch01

Tech 69% +$3,083 $97,929 vol · 137 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	75¢	30¢	+$4	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	14¢	10¢	$-20	loss
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	No	86¢	78¢	$-17	loss
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	93¢	99¢	+$7	win
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	80¢	70¢	$-25	loss
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	62¢	78¢	$-5	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	18¢	14¢	$-18	loss
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	64¢	86¢	+$113	win
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	17¢	5¢	$-24	loss

Economy 67% +$451 $9,309 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession by end of 2026?	No	66¢	74¢	+$12	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	80¢	80¢	+$1	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	58¢	4¢	$-539	loss
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	63¢	99¢	+$146	win
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	89¢	93¢	+$32	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$-222	loss
US recession in 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$4	win
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks	South Carolina Gamecocks	85¢	100¢	+$15	win
Negative GDP growth in 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$47	win

Weather 77% +$114 $13,907 vol · 70 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?	No	92¢	90¢	$-2	loss
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-11?	No	49¢	0¢	$-49	loss
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$88	win
New Mexico Lobos vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	40¢	100¢	+$66	win
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils	Duke Blue Devils	71¢	100¢	+$29	win
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	62¢	100¢	+$38	win
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks	St. Johns Red Storm	95¢	100¢	+$45	win
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes	Missouri Tigers	42¢	0¢	$-84	loss
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	73¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 16?	No	97¢	100¢	+$8	win

Esports 57% $-54 $34,008 vol · 499 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	7¢	10¢	+$16	win
Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026?	Yes	90¢	81¢	$-9	loss
Will G2 Esports win LEC 2026 Spring?	Yes	50¢	50¢	$-1	loss
Counter-Strike: HAVENs vs Nebula In Chaox (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage	Nebula In Chaox	44¢	100¢	+$28	win
LoL: Dignitas vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs	Dignitas	23¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Dota 2: Heroic vs South America Rejects (BO5) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs	South America Rejects	30¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #1 Playoffs	BESTIA Academy	69¢	100¢	+$31	win
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs AaB Esport (BO3) - United21 Group D	Infinite	39¢	100¢	+$61	win
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner	Wildcard	54¢	0¢	$-54	loss
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season	Ei Nerd Esports	33¢	100¢	+$67	win

Finance 77% $-178 $6,932 vol · 56 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	12¢	1¢	$-31	loss
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	65¢	44¢	$-64	loss
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?	No	77¢	90¢	+$14	win
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	No	82¢	100¢	+$10	win
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	27¢	20¢	$-18	loss
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	81¢	91¢	+$12	win
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	83¢	96¢	+$16	win
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	84¢	23¢	$-73	loss
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	93¢	96¢	+$3	win
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Anna Bondar vs Oleksandra Oliynykova	Anna Bondar	89¢	100¢	+$11	win

Politics 70% $-180 $42,829 vol · 196 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	96¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	14¢	21¢	+$206	win
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5¢	3¢	$-12	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	87¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	42¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	85¢	84¢	$-18	loss
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	86¢	88¢	+$10	win
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?	No	94¢	91¢	$-12	loss
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	Yes	39¢	16¢	$-60	loss
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?	No	94¢	93¢	$-3	loss

Mentions 0% $-312 $312 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?	Yes	19¢	0¢	$-76	loss
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-40	loss

Culture 62% $-695 $16,609 vol · 86 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026?	Yes	24¢	6¢	$-68	loss
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026?	No	92¢	97¢	+$20	win
Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$99	win
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in April?	No	92¢	91¢	$-1	loss
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$33	win
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-335	loss
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	61¢	0¢	$-305	loss
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-290	loss
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-158	loss
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$52	win

Geopolitics 73% $-1,122 $40,887 vol · 209 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-131	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	56¢	70¢	+$20	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	69¢	0¢	$-60	loss
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	89¢	0¢	$-356	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	61¢	0¢	$-375	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	88¢	91¢	+$45	win
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	66¢	72¢	+$21	win
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	87¢	86¢	$-2	loss
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	69¢	78¢	+$12	win
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	74¢	84¢	+$14	win

Crypto 52% $-2,665 $605,819 vol · 888 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Infrared launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026?	Yes	50¢	8¢	$-17	loss
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	73¢	3¢	$-95	loss
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$76	win
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	No	74¢	78¢	+$50	win
US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?	No	81¢	86¢	+$6	win
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	90¢	93¢	+$3	win
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	87¢	22¢	$-75	loss
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	52¢	51¢	$-9	loss
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	ETH	64¢	0¢	$-105	loss

Other 61% $-4,182 $536,072 vol · 4236 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Stable FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	79¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will UNI reach $6.50 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	89¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	No	88¢	90¢	+$3	win
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	77¢	27¢	$-65	loss
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	83¢	2¢	$-97	loss
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$-118	loss
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?	Yes	76¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	No	89¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	67¢	100¢	+$19	win

Elections 57% $-4,745 $164,162 vol · 283 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	45¢	38¢	$-650	loss
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	27¢	19¢	$-333	loss
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	95¢	98¢	+$3	win
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$-25	loss
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	55¢	44¢	$-58	loss
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	38¢	52¢	+$296	win
Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?	Yes	86¢	88¢	+$8	win
Will the Republican Party win the TX-01 House seat?	Yes	92¢	92¢	+$2	win
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	67¢	64¢	$-11	loss
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-07 House seat?	Yes	91¢	92¢	+$6	win

Sports 53% $-25,469 $227,729 vol · 1758 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$-58	loss
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	Yes	33¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	42¢	0¢	+$41	win
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	Yes	24¢	20¢	$-14	loss
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	No	95¢	98¢	+$11	win
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	71¢	80¢	+$19	win
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	25¢	2¢	$-231	loss
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	99¢	99¢	+$4	win
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	15¢	10¢	$-94	loss
Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$-6	loss