Win rate
53.8%
56 W / 48 L
Total PnL
$222
realized $-641 · unrealized $864
Portfolio
$864
volume $22,027
Predictions
214
5.1/day · avg $103
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 60% +$109
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 74¢ | +$7 | win |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | No | 54¢ | 37¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 38¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET? | No | 44¢ | 82¢ | $-5 | loss |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | No | 53¢ | 84¢ | +$8 | win |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | No | 40¢ | 69¢ | +$9 | win |
| Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | No | 53¢ | 74¢ | +$6 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 19¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 71% +$80
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? | No | 51¢ | 10¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | No | 29¢ | 18¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters? | No | 60¢ | 70¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | No | 54¢ | 90¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%? | No | 53¢ | 65¢ | +$14 | win |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Politics 60% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? | No | 51¢ | 76¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 57¢ | 75¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 25¢ | 42¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | No | 56¢ | 82¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2026? | No | 51¢ | 66¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? | No | 42¢ | 60¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? | No | 29¢ | 27¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | No | 59¢ | 54¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 26¢ | $-12 | loss |
Geopolitics 46% $-106
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 40¢ | 20¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 43¢ | 32¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 43¢ | 22¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 57¢ | 82¢ | +$68 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 14¢ | 12¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? | No | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | No | 60¢ | 88¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 96¢ | +$11 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$46 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | No | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 57.8¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? | No | 40.3¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? | No | 49.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| BitBoy convicted? | No | 56.6¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 49.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? | No | 45.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? | No | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | No | 62.1¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | No | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? | No | 54.0¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? | No | 33.6¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? | No | 24.9¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $27 | 31/03/2026 |
| 2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? | No | 16.5¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $59 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | No | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (March 8) | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $30 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "El Salvador" this week? (March 8) | No | 20.9¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? | No | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 01/01/1970 |
| Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026? | No | 55.9¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 42.0¢ | 92¢ | +$55 | $84 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 58.6¢ | 99¢ | +$14 | $50 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | No | 20.5¢ | 38¢ | +$69 | $32 | 19/04/2026 |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | No | 23.8¢ | 32¢ | +$34 | $28 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | No | 53.7¢ | 90¢ | +$23 | $51 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%? | No | 53.0¢ | 65¢ | +$14 | $50 | 19/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 28.7¢ | 18¢ | $-19 | $51 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 57.4¢ | 94¢ | +$15 | $50 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 62.9¢ | 94¢ | +$13 | $51 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 60.7¢ | 90¢ | +$9 | $31 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 61.0¢ | 59¢ | $-2 | $50 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 15.3¢ | 12¢ | $-11 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | No | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | No | 26.7¢ | 24¢ | $-5 | $53 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | No | 24.8¢ | 20¢ | $-10 | $45 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | No | 17.8¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 34.4¢ | 26¢ | $-12 | $52 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | No | 28.9¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | $39 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | No | 39.7¢ | 37¢ | $-3 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 43.8¢ | 44¢ | $-0 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 44.9¢ | 44¢ | $-0 | $51 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | No | 48.0¢ | 48¢ | $-1 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |