Win rate
57.2%
358 W / 268 L
Total PnL
$4,297
realized $3,478 · unrealized $819
Portfolio
$819
volume $266,590
Predictions
949
11.0/day · avg $281
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 52% +$3,374
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 11¢ | 100¢ | +$212 | win |
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$176 | win |
| OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | Yes | 6¢ | 7¢ | +$47 | win |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 37¢ | 98¢ | +$46 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | 23¢ | 20¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Viktor Gyokeres be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season? | No | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$123 | win |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | No | 23¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 22¢ | 46¢ | +$129 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? | Yes | 11¢ | 2¢ | +$117 | win |
Geopolitics 63% +$1,459
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$139 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 20¢ | 82¢ | +$154 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 26¢ | 32¢ | +$9 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 18¢ | 5¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 21¢ | 94¢ | +$238 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | +$99 | win |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 3¢ | +$98 | win |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | No | 29¢ | 63¢ | +$60 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | No | 16¢ | 38¢ | +$52 | win |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 1¢ | +$40 | win |
Elections 75% +$359
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? | No | 8¢ | 9¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Culture 100% +$208
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | win |
| Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$35 | win |
Politics 64% +$176
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | Yes | 21¢ | 48¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | No | 50¢ | 52¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 11¢ | 18¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Yes | 47¢ | 82¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 73¢ | +$10 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 67¢ | 88¢ | +$6 | win |
Finance 100% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 12¢ | +$60 | win |
Mentions 33% $-133
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Weather 0% $-192
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | No | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on March 24? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 24? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 24? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
Sports 36% $-235
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | No | 23¢ | 35¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? | Yes | 26¢ | 34¢ | +$141 | win |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will UConn advance to the Final Four? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Duke advance to the Final Four? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | loss |
| Will Team Spirit qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-69 | loss |
Tech 0% $-329
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 30? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-245 | loss |
Crypto 59% $-1,044
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 66¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 5? | No | 34¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | win |
| Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $80 March 23-29? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-97 | loss |
| Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? | No | 25¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | Up | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | Down | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET | Up | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$160 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET | Up | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | $110 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $20 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 8.7¢ | 0¢ | $-158 | $523 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $130 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? | Yes | 8.6¢ | 0¢ | +$604 | $220 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? | No | 41.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $80 | 14/04/2026 |
| Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians - Completed match? | No | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 100¢ | +$173 | $41 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tiger Woods play in the 2026 Masters Tournament? | No | 35.0¢ | 100¢ | +$78 | $51 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $28 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$367 | $240 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-210 | $210 | 12/04/2026 |
| Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score | No | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 10.0¢ | 100¢ | +$719 | $80 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 23.0¢ | 100¢ | +$376 | $114 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 10.0¢ | 100¢ | +$243 | $27 | 11/04/2026 |
| Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score | No | 8.0¢ | 100¢ | +$204 | $35 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 46.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $31 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Red Star FC vs. SC Bastia end in a draw? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-192 | $192 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Sydney FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 15.4¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | $112 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Auckland FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Brentford FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $38 | 11/04/2026 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Angers SCO: Both Teams to Score | No | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-04-11? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? | No | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? | No | 12.0¢ | 100¢ | +$585 | $80 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-10? | No | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$486 | $180 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 12.9¢ | 0¢ | +$250 | $71 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-10? | No | 51.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | $186 | 10/04/2026 |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $130 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | $-81 | $191 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-10? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $99 | 10/04/2026 |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | No | 10.3¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $28 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Frosinone Calcio vs. Palermo FC end in a draw? | No | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $34 | 07/04/2026 |