inotice

Other 66% +$2,140 $19,290 vol · 66 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	92¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	81¢	84¢	+$1	win
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	61¢	80¢	$-3	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	83¢	82¢	$-3	loss
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	38¢	34¢	$-5	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$-2	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	94¢	95¢	+$0	win
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	92¢	100¢	+$5	win
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30?	No	87¢	97¢	+$5	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	71¢	100¢	+$124	win

Geopolitics 74% +$1,353 $18,976 vol · 78 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	93¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	39¢	0¢	$-99	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	53¢	72¢	+$199	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	66¢	84¢	+$92	win
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	81¢	86¢	+$7	win
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	86¢	90¢	+$6	win
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	44¢	26¢	$-11	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	40¢	30¢	$-53	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	87¢	94¢	+$109	win

Tech 91% +$1,122 $1,441 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	8¢	100¢	+$457	win
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	27¢	100¢	+$270	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	50¢	100¢	+$193	win
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$118	win
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	80¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	89¢	100¢	+$12	win
OpenAI browser in 2025?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	47¢	0¢	$-4	loss
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$20	win

Elections 65% +$99 $2,123 vol · 17 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2¢	4¢	+$2	win
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	36¢	34¢	$-2	loss
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	38¢	+$1	win
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$-40	loss
French election called by December 31?	No	31¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?	Yes	70¢	0¢	$-42	loss
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will Jim Gavin win the Irish Presidential Election?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-79	loss
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?	Yes	45¢	100¢	+$98	win
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	No	83¢	100¢	+$8	win

Sports 100% +$8 $100 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 15?	No	93¢	100¢	+$8	win

Crypto 67% $-24 $400 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	Yes	28¢	100¢	+$39	win
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$37	win
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?	No	28¢	0¢	$-100	loss

Economy 50% $-88 $1,133 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$12	win
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-100	loss

Finance 40% $-183 $368 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Chegg (CHGG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	47¢	0¢	+$15	win
Will Wendy’s (WEN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	68¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	Yes	66¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-15	loss

Culture 40% $-459 $2,303 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	93¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	47¢	0¢	$-276	loss
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-100	loss
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	53¢	0¢	$-240	loss
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$119	win

Politics 51% $-778 $6,195 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	5¢	7¢	$-9	loss
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	40¢	39¢	+$2	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	96¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	76¢	40¢	$-388	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	58¢	48¢	$-7	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	41¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?	No	74¢	100¢	+$71	win
Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in December?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$48	win
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	No	80¢	100¢	+$10	win