Win rate
42.9%
18 W / 24 L
Total PnL
$-320
realized $-1,437 · unrealized $1,116
Portfolio
$1,116
volume $398,296
Predictions
54
2.2/day · avg $7,376
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/05/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Economy 100% +$67
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 8¢ | 4¢ | +$67 | win |
Crypto 100% +$24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
Politics 60% +$8
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 25% $-21
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 59¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-5 | loss |
Sports 27% $-154
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 11¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | $-115 | loss |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $-3 | loss |
Other 43% $-250
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 7¢ | 12¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 88¢ | 97¢ | +$10 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $4,461 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $117 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $69 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $51 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $4,123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | No | 98.9¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $1,106 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 98.7¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $1,088 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 1¢ | +$0 | $37 | 30/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 97.9¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $1,104 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | No | 88.3¢ | 97¢ | +$10 | $2,787 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | Yes | 13.1¢ | 3¢ | $-307 | $935 | 30/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 7.4¢ | 12¢ | +$4 | $461 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $2,235 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 88.1¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | $3,098 | 31/05/2026 |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 98¢ | $-5 | $2,463 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? | No | 95.8¢ | 97¢ | $-5 | $3,255 | 03/06/2026 |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 1.3¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | $51 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? | Yes | 1.1¢ | 1¢ | $-4 | $67 | 07/06/2026 |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 4.3¢ | 2¢ | $-3 | $68 | 13/06/2026 |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Yes | 1.7¢ | 1¢ | $-15 | $85 | 16/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | No | 94.6¢ | 95¢ | +$3 | $1,113 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $1,086 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Yes | 21.7¢ | 24¢ | $-115 | $1,675 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | $604 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 4.2¢ | 4¢ | +$0 | $166 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 84.8¢ | 85¢ | $-15 | $3,108 | 01/07/2026 |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $94 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 90.3¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | $448 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 88.5¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | $1,322 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17.2¢ | 17¢ | +$0 | $619 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 97.8¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $1,197 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | $25 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 93.2¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | $2,160 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 3¢ | $-4 | $129 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 2¢ | $-5 | $99 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11.5¢ | 11¢ | $-6 | $673 | 20/07/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 4¢ | +$67 | $605 | 29/07/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 13.9¢ | 10¢ | +$7 | $91 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 85.5¢ | 90¢ | +$6 | $966 | 20/09/2026 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $1,087 | 04/10/2026 |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 98.3¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | $297 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | Yes | 94.2¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | $1,088 | 31/10/2026 |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 12.2¢ | 59¢ | $-9 | $520 | 03/11/2026 |
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 2¢ | +$27 | $82 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? | No | 97.7¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | $1,114 | 19/12/2026 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 91.2¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | $1,197 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 98.4¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | $1,897 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 1.8¢ | 2¢ | +$7 | $32 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72.7¢ | 73¢ | +$3 | $3,375 | 07/11/2028 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 93.2¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | $1,066 | 07/11/2028 |