99problems123

Geopolitics 55% +$96,878 $1,575,568 vol · 56 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	26¢	20¢	+$16,556	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	46¢	80¢	+$6,502	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	20¢	0¢	+$102	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$1,027	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	25¢	0¢	$-3,248	loss
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	79¢	100¢	$-8,236	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	74¢	68¢	$-2,017	loss
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	52¢	85¢	+$83	win
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	52¢	100¢	+$502	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	58¢	92¢	+$8,534	win

Politics 63% +$10,077 $157,590 vol · 21 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1,218	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	96¢	100¢	$-4,649	loss
Trump out as President by June 30?	No	50¢	94¢	+$0	—
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	50¢	6¢	+$0	—
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	15¢	20¢	+$45	win
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	7¢	19¢	+$2,895	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	41¢	33¢	$-34	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-435	loss
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	No	9¢	0¢	$-45	loss
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$667	win

Elections 50% +$4,376 $64,831 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	30¢	36¢	+$3,212	win
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	63¢	64¢	$-101	loss
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-11	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	82¢	92¢	+$1,220	win
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	5¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	23¢	60¢	+$105	win

Other 38% +$3,738 $307,777 vol · 53 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	6¢	6¢	$-227	loss
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	No	31¢	0¢	$-89	loss
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?	Yes	48¢	0¢	$-201	loss
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	No	6¢	3¢	$-109	loss
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	88¢	97¢	+$191	win
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	26¢	52¢	+$153	win
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	15¢	91¢	+$236	win
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$65	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	24¢	30¢	+$5,412	win
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	71¢	98¢	$-354	loss

Economy 100% +$720 $10,200 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$720	win

Finance 50% +$440 $29,560 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	No	46¢	57¢	+$64	win
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	14¢	28¢	+$174	win
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	37¢	72¢	+$147	win
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	No	14¢	4¢	+$152	win
Discord IPO before 2027?	Yes	80¢	60¢	$-4,097	loss
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)?	Yes	10¢	1¢	$-447	loss
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?	No	89¢	99¢	+$0	—
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	19¢	83¢	+$1,798	win
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$-62	loss
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	No	12¢	100¢	+$779	win

Mentions 0% $-41 $41 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-41	loss

Sports 40% $-911 $34,264 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	40¢	48¢	+$1,458	win
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	21¢	2¢	$-142	loss
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)	MarQuel Mederos	42¢	50¢	+$424	win
76ers vs. Heat	76ers	56¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$4,024	win
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-168	loss
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	12¢	0¢	$-571	loss
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	24¢	0¢	$-4,121	loss
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$1,080	win

Crypto 35% $-2,424 $17,951 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-117	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	32¢	42¢	+$787	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	44¢	100¢	+$234	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	51¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	54¢	100¢	+$1,189	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	30¢	100¢	+$355	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	13¢	0¢	$-133	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	48¢	0¢	$-481	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	54¢	0¢	$-500	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	51¢	0¢	$-600	loss

Culture 20% $-3,267 $14,012 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-135	loss
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?	No	50¢	0¢	$-183	loss
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-2,825	loss

Tech 33% $-3,626 $78,429 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	85¢	86¢	+$13	win
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	21¢	10¢	$-431	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	16¢	0¢	+$3,567	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	No	58¢	100¢	$-660	loss
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	75¢	100¢	+$5,816	win
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$363	win
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-48	loss
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	Yes	36¢	0¢	$-58	loss
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-65	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-5,556	loss